TOP RISKS FOR OCTOBER 2021

   Fri, 01 October 2021

October will see a heightened threat of political and socio-economic protests in Angola, Chad, Lebanon, Senegal, Tunisia, and Yemen. The political situation in Guinea will remain tense following a successful coup d'état, while military-civil relations show signs of deterioration after a failed military takeover in Sudan. The security forces in Burundi are to remain on high alert following a series of attacks, including on the international airport, while Libya’s political environment has become more fragile following a major fallout between rival government bodies. A spike in armed violence in north-western Nigeria suggests growing bandit capabilities along the border with Niger, while the insurgency in northern Mozambique shows signals of evolution after the first reported employment of landmines by militants. Election-related violence and unrest is also likely over the coming weeks in Ethiopia, Iraq, and South Africa.

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