SUDAN: TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF A NEW CIVIL WAR

   Mon, 17 April 2023

A political dispute between the leaders of Sudan’s ruling military and paramilitary post-2019 coup junta has erupted into full-scale fighting across most large cities and regions, including airstrikes, artillery fire, and heavy casualties. The probability of a mediated solution remains only slightly higher than a worst-case scenario of a fully-fledged civil war that would drag in neighbouring countries and Middle Eastern states, as well as exacerbate global geo-political rivalries. Previous hopes for an economic recovery and debt arrears resolution for Sudan would be scuppered if the latest violence becomes protracted or causes even further disruption to business and trade.

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