SPECIAL REPORT: SOUTH AFRICAN 2024 ELECTIONS SCENARIO ANALYSIS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT

   Mon, 29 January 2024

In a most probable scenario, South Africa’s incumbent president will remain in power beyond May 2024 and continue pursuing privatisation and structural reform policies in the struggling power and logistics sectors. Yet, fiscal strains will intensify in coming years as the ruling party overspends in this electoral cycle. If the incumbent fails to secure a strong mandate, he is more likely to be recalled by the dominant ruling party before his next term expires or he could even be replaced immediately following the elections. If the governing party is forced into a formal coalition with opposition parties, a new government will be more likely to advocate for state intervention in key sectors, while the risk of political instability and civil unrest will be heightened.

Pangea-Risk Insight is a specialist country risk solution to forecast threats and opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Powered by our proprietary forecasting methodology, Insight offers market-tested country risk intelligence and ratings on a customised technology platform.