SPECIAL REPORT: EGYPT CURRENCY DEVALUATION AND FISCAL REFORMS TO AVERT DEFAULT

   Tue, 09 January 2024

Egypt is anticipated to avoid a debt default scenario in 2024, even while having over USD 42 billion in external repayments due this year. The economy should benefit from sustained Suez Canal transit and tourism revenues, despite regional security crises, while new LNG exports and foreign investments should boost the fiscal outlook. Moreover, enhanced IMF, Gulf, and western credit support should be sufficient to avoid a messy debt restructuring process. Nevertheless, economic volatility risks are now rated as Severe, even while civil unrest risks will increase as unpopular fiscal austerity measures are imposed from this month. Meanwhile, the administration will maintain a consistent foreign policy stance, particularly towards the Nile water rights dispute and Israel.

Pangea-Risk Insight is a specialist country risk solution to forecast threats and opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Powered by our proprietary forecasting methodology, Insight offers market-tested country risk intelligence and ratings on a customised technology platform.