SENEGAL: STATE STABILITY AND SECURITY FACE GREATEST THREAT OF UNREST IN YEARS

   Mon, 05 June 2023

The arrest or imprisonment of a populist opposition leader will trigger further violent protests by his supporters in Dakar and southern cities. Yet, the deployment of the military and relative discipline of security forces should mitigate the threat of protracted and more intense confrontations. If further violence does spiral out of control, a much-needed new IMF programme may not be confirmed and disruption to commercial assets, including in the oil and gas sector, would be probable. Destabilisation of the Casamance area would spike the risk of localised militancy and smuggling operations along the border with Gambia.

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