IRAN: HARDENED US AND ISRAELI POSTURES INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF RENEWED AIRSTRIKES AMID GROWING UNREST RISKS

   Tue, 06 January 2026

Protests triggered by a currency collapse in December expanded across 17 provinces, driven by deteriorating living conditions and loss of purchasing power. The government relied on security forces to contain unrest without resorting to martial law, while leadership changes and policy adjustments failed to defuse public discontent. President Donald Trump’s explicit threat and Israeli support for Iranian protesters have hardened external rhetoric, increasing the likelihood of airstrikes targeting strategic assets within 12 months. Iran is expected to respond through non-attributable means, including cyber operations, and targeted maritime disruption, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the primary exposure channel for regional spillover.

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