GULF WAR: ASSESSING THE LONG-TERM IMPACT OF THE CONFLICT ON KEY MARKETS IN AFRICA, ASIA, AND THE MIDDLE EAST

   Wed, 01 April 2026

Over the coming weeks, several de-escalation pathways are becoming evident, with the conflict shifting into a lower-intensity phase and a reduced risk of disruption to trade in key commodities, such as crude and refined oil, fertilisers, chemicals, and metals, offering some relief to distressed emerging and frontier markets globally. However, if de-escalation fails, the war will shift into a new trajectory in which energy, industrial, and other commercial assets are increasingly targeted across the Middle East and beyond.

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